I'm looking for pitchers who can throw strikes, avoid walks and create strikeouts by making batters miss. This means these pitchers control their games as opposed to relying on their defense on balls put in play.
Dating back to 2007, there were 29 hitters who met my criteria and were also in their team's Opening Day lineup. Of those, 21 (72%) were drafted twice as high the next year and 90% outperformed expectations that season.
By comparing rankings within the Special Blend projections to the Average Draft Position data from FantasyPros, I can get an idea of some of the more undervalued players this season.
There is the standard data update here that updates the auction data, ADP data, and projections to their newest incarnations. In addition to that though, there are a number of exciting feature changes in these versions.
Each year, I put together printable cheatsheets that break each position into tiers and are ordered by the average draft position data from each of the main draft websites. I unleash this year's versions to the world here.
There were 46 SP's last year that met this criteria and they averaged 3.55 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 8.8 K/9. The 86 SP's that didn't averaged a 4.16 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.0 K/9.
My fantasy baseball rankings for 2016 were posted last night at FantasyPros. The rankings were constructed using HR data, xAVG trends and looking at my possible sleeper hitters and pitchers.
Though xBABIP and BABIP are funky stats, you can use xAVG and compare it to AVG to find who was lucky or unlucky. Here are ten of the biggest discrepancies between xAVG and AVG from last year.
Weighting various other projection systems for each stat is a vast improvement over simply combining the projections. I find that these Special Blend projections have outperformed most other projections out there yearly.
The winner for best pitcher projections has bounced between Steamer and the Fangraphs Fans before Clay Davenport's projections came out of nowhere last year with some great work. Who won in 2015?