The following is a profile of Tyler Colvin, one of my 2011 fantasy baseball deep sleeper candidates (affectionately called narcos). For more information on the thought process behind the narcos, please visit the introductory post on this topic.
Average Draft Position: 272.90
Others drafted around that time: Angel Pagan, Rajai Davis, Ryan Theriot
2011 Role: Backup OF with potential to start
2010 Production: .254 AVG, 20 HR, 60 R, 56 RBI, 6 SB in 395 AB
My 2011 Prediction: .270 AVG, 25 HR, 75 R, 85 RBI, 15 SB (if he starts)
Tyler Colvin’s rookie season was certainly a nice surprise for the Cubs as he jacked 20 homers in a limited role with the team. He’s only 25 so still has room to grow but his job in 2011 is undefined with the Cubs OF situation fairly locked up unless they can trade Kosuke Fukodome away. If Colvin is able to get full-time AB’s in 2011, he could be in line for decent production from the lower portion of your drafts.
He has nice pop on his bat but likely won’t turn his 20 HR in 400 AB into 30 HR in 600 AB. It wasn’t that he was particular lucky from the length of his HR’s as Hit Tracker‘s data shows he had 5 “No Doubt” HR’s and only 3 “Just Enough” HR’s. However his .246 ISO (average extra bases per AB) was well above his minor league numbers. Expecting a drop down to about a .200 ISO over the course of the season could put him at about 25 HR, which is nothing to scoff at from the 272nd pick in your draft.
He has decent speed and had 44 SB over 442 games in the minors. So, expecting him to continue about 1 SB per 10 games would be logical and put him at about 15 SB on the season if he plays full-time. His batting average was fairly poor last year but should see a slight rise with better luck and a better controlled K%. His strikeout rate was certainly a problem as he struck out 27.9% of the time last year, which was way above his numbers in the minors. As he adjusts to MLB pitching, the K% should drop down a bit more and bring his average up to somewhere in the .260 to .270 range. He’s not a contact hitter and will likely hurt you in average a little bit but his 20/20 potential helps make up for it.
Keep an eye on Colvin’s role with the Cubs during Spring Training and give him a significant bump in your rankings if it’s reported that he’ll start. However, take a flier on him either way for a chance to get 25/15 production after the 20th round of your draft. He may not put up gigantic fantasy numbers but he should be a fairly productive bat if he does get the chance to start.