Matt Holliday has been as consistent as fantasy baseball players can be since 2006. His numbers took a bit of hit since leaving Colorado but not enough to make him a lesser talent, even if it may cast a shadow on him in others’ eyes. But, the truth is that he is a reliable lock to get you an average above .300 with 25-30 HR, 100 R, 100 RBI and maybe 10-15 SB. He’s always been at those numbers since 2006 with his lowest totals in each still producing a mighty line of .312, 24 HR, 94 R, 88 RBI, 9 SB (with some of those numbers coming in an injury-shortened season). So, why isn’t this pillar of consistent production being considered at the top of the second round or end of the first round? It’s hard to say exactly but it’s something that you should take advantage of.
In both Marcels and CAIRO projections, he ends up projecting to be the 2nd or 3rd best outfielder and ranked at 9th and 11th overall respectively. In both of these projections, Carlos Gonzalez and Josh Hamilton are predicted to regress and be slightly less valuable than Holliday in 2011 despite both being first-round fantasy picks. Other names being drafted ahead of Holliday that probably shouldn’t be include Mark Teixeria, Prince Fielder, Alex Rodriguez and Joe Mauer but they’re all at positions that are more scarce than outfield and position scarcity is a whole other ball of wax. Yes, it’s clear that outfield is a packed position but a good player is still a good player and Holliday is nearly a lock to deliver the type of performance that you’re hoping to get out of guys like Hamilton or Gonzalez.
If I had my druthers, I’d pass on OF in the first round and snatch up Holliday at prime value in the second round depending on where I’m picking. While anything can certainly happen in a season, there seems to be no red flags that would encourage you to think twice about Holliday in 2011.