During your draft preparation, I helped you explore the projected roto category value of each player those categories based on advanced projections out there. Now that we have actual baseball being played, I’ll take a look each week at the actual roto value contributions of the players throughout that week and the season. I’ll use the traditional WERTH roto values that you may have seen this preseason and a new opportunity-independent WERTH value (WERTHy). I’ll touch upon what each of these mean to give you an idea of how to use these for your team.
The idea of WERTH is to look at each player’s statistics (particularly roto categories) and see how far they each deviate from the fantasy league average for that statistic. This determines the value lost or added value in each category if you were to start that player in your league. While the fantasy league average for each stat varies based on league type, these in-season values we’ll base this on a standard deep 12-team league with 13 hitters and 8 pitchers (based on the 2010 season averages I had calculated for that league type).
During each period in question, we’ll have to figure the league average and then value added by each player and how that would break down over a season. So, in my calculations, I’d determine how many HR (or any other stat) a player contributed above or below average in a week and how much value that would add at season’s end.
While a really great week might be worth more than 1 roto point of value for your standings, keep in mind that players will go up and down and sometimes contribute negative points in a given week as well. Positive WERTH numbers are good and negative numbers are bad.
Something I wanted to explore a bit more was the possible value of players who may not be getting as many AB but might be worthy of them. A player may hit 2 HR in a week but only do so in 12 plate appearances so the actual WERTH value of that is about average though it had the potential to be even more valuable if he kept up the pace over 25 AB. So, in this new stat called WERTHy (we’re using it to see who is ‘worthy’ of more playing time and such), I’ll put everyone on the same scale of playing time. That player with 2 HR in 12 PA is compared to other players not based on his HR total but rather his HR per PA.
When looking at weekly stats or season stats, this will help us determine not just who is producing better total numbers because of consistent at-bats but who is also producing the best each time they step up to the plate no matter how many times that may be. This will help reduce penalties on injured players or platooned players and give us an idea of some possible diamonds in the rough (or narcos, if you will).
After today’s slate of games, I’ll post the season’s current leaders in both WERTH and WERTHy values and some notes about the results at this point in time. Stay tuned, statheads.