What The Luck – Pitchers to Sell High or Buy Low On

With a month of baseball in the books, we’re starting to get enough data to do some proper analysis of who has been lucky and unlucky thus far.  Though we trust our core numbers that we grew up with like ERA and AVG, there’s a lot of luck factors that go into whether a pitcher lets up a run or a batter gets a hit.  We’re going to take a glance at some of the lucky and unlucky pitchers from the year thus far and the metric of choice here will be comparing FIP to ERA.

FIP was developed by Tom Tango and is more properly known as Fielding Independent Pitching. It is used to estimate ERA based on HR allowed, BB allowed and strikeouts compared to innings pitched as those are the three true outcomes that are under a pitcher’s control. The idea being that a ball in play is often in control of the fielders as opposed to the pitchers so this statistic accounts for that by estimating the ERA that the pitcher actually deserved as opposed to the ERA that they actually had.  So, by comparing the actual ERA of a pitcher to their FIP, we get a sense of how poorly luck has treated them.

Player
ERA
BABIP
K/9
K/BB
FIP
xFIP
E-F
Travis Wood
6.82
.366
7.67
3.00
3.35
3.76
3.47
Matt Garza
3.96
.400
11.87
4.64
1.19
1.98
2.77
Daniel Hudson
5.30
.343
8.92
2.85
2.81
3.47
2.49
Edwin Jackson
5.86
.357
8.15
1.88
3.71
3.70
2.15
M. Bumgarner
5.34
.333
6.82
1.92
3.50
3.81
1.84
Yovani Gallardo
6.10
.358
6.53
1.76
4.40
4.00
1.70
Carlos Carrasco
4.97
.337
5.59
1.80
3.32
4.25
1.65
Jason Vargas
5.45
.315
6.49
2.78
3.81
3.91
1.64
Ervin Santana
4.89
.325
7.68
3.30
3.39
3.56
1.50
Carl Pavano
5.84
.279
4.14
1.70
4.43
4.81
1.41
J. Zimmermann
4.29
.294
4.54
2.57
2.92
4.27
1.37
Chris Narveson
4.64
.323
8.73
2.67
3.30
3.27
1.33

In this first group here, we see a laundry list of players who were unlucky through this first month of baseball.  If you look at the FIP statistic, you will see the ERA that is expected of that pitcher based on their core stats. These all represent possibly buy-low candidates that you may want to set your sights on.  Yovani Gallardo has had a tough start to the season based on his ERA and his owners are likely not happy with him so maybe it’s time to dangle a carrot in their direction and see how they feel about it.

Player
ERA
BABIP
K/9
K/BB
FIP
xFIP
E-F
Alexi Ogando
2.30
.165
6.03
2.63
4.66
4.21
-2.36
Josh Tomlin
2.45
.179
4.91
2.25
4.67
4.02
-2.21
Dustin Moseley
1.63
.236
3.72
1.78
3.51
3.85
-1.89
Brett Myers
3.72
.274
6.05
2.17
5.32
4.25
-1.60
Zach Britton
2.63
.241
4.78
1.33
4.14
4.17
-1.51
Colby Lewis
5.70
.233
6.00
1.82
7.17
4.76
-1.47
Randy Wolf
2.39
.255
7.88
3.30
3.82
3.63
-1.43
Bruce Chen
4.04
.272
4.79
1.58
5.47
4.73
-1.43
Tom Gorzelanny
2.93
.181
6.75
2.56
4.24
4.32
-1.31
Jason Hammel
3.23
.295
5.28
2.25
4.47
3.70
-1.24
Jeremy Guthrie
3.00
.258
5.31
3.83
4.15
4.30
-1.15
Kevin Correia
2.90
.233
4.02
2.00
4.04
4.36
-1.14
Max Scherzer
3.82
.317
8.84
2.06
4.94
3.93
-1.11
Kyle McClellan
3.23
.307
4.99
1.70
4.31
4.34
-1.08

From the camp of overly lucky pitchers, here’s some players that you may want to abandon ship on before they start to sink (or stink).  Zach Britton has been a nice surprise thus far (despite a K/9 under 5) but his FIP statistic tells us that he’s pitched more like a 4.14 ERA pitcher than his actual 2.63 ERA.  He’s done well but pitched a bit over his head and it may be worth checking out what others are willing to offer for him.  Other possible flash-in-the-pans include Alexi Ogando and Josh Tomlin.  Take note of these players if you own them and recognize that a fall from grace may be upcoming.

We like to think that the performances we see on the baseball field are devoid of luck but there’s a much larger luck element to every play than we often care to admit.  By admitting that certain players have been lucky or unlucky, we can effectively find value throughout the season on the waiver wire or in trades.  These are all pitchers who have been on the extremely good or bad side of the luck equation and you’ll want to start involving in trade talks one way or another.

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