There are a couple of fantasy baseball deep sleepers each year that can make the difference for your team. The following 2012 profile of Chris Heisey will analyze the chances that he might be one of the next big sleepers. He was selected based on my simple selection process which is detailed in this introductory post.
ADP as of this posting: 232.79 (Round 20 in 12-team league)
Projected 2012 Role: Starting OF
2011 Production: .254 AVG, 18 HR, 44 R, 50 RBI, 6 SB in 308 PA
My 2012 Prediction: .240 AVG, 25 HR, 75 R, 85 RBI, 10 SB if he starts
Chris Heisey confuses me. I say that because he has some positive aspects to his game that are mixed with some serious flaws which make him hard to predict. If you look at his career, you’ll see that he came up as a player with a fair amount of speed, decent power, a good strikeout rate and an average walk rate. But those things slowly changed as he got closer to the majors. His power started to develop and he became an extreme flyball hitter and sacrificed his strikeout and walk rate in the process. Before you know it, he turned into a less extreme version of Mark Reynolds by the time he hit the majors.
At this point in time, Heisey is projected to be the starting outfielder for Cincinnati in 2012. He’s going for a very cheap price tag in drafts despite that fact and his good production in limited AB’s last year. You should have your eye on Heisey because there’s few guys that can deliver 30 HR potential that late in a draft. On top of that fact, he can even nab you a fair share of stolen bases along the way too.
However, he will likely hurt you in the batting average department (and if you’re in an OBP league, it’s even worse). He has hit .254 thus far in his MLB career but his BABIP should probably drop in the future based on his flyball tendencies which will also lead to a drop in AVG. The question will become whether Cincinnati will continue to start him if he struggles with AVG and OBP as he doesn’t add a ton in the field. The Reds have Ryan Ludwick watching from the bench who will likely jump in if Heisey struggles. Heisey doesn’t project as someone who will deliver you early round value like a Mike Morse did last year as a sleeper but he certainly can deliver more value than your typical 20th round pick.
Sleeper Verdict: Sleepy. Power and speed are a heck of a combination in a sleeper. The AVG and OBP will hurt him though. I wouldn’t make a huge reach for Heisey but he’s certainly a nice late round sleeper option.
