While projection systems certainly aren’t the be-all-end-all when it comes to your fantasy baseball draft prep, they do offer nice conservative predictions that you can rely on. I touched upon some of the undervalued players from the main projection sources this morning and now let’s look at some of the overvalued players.
One thing to keep in mind is that these projections will rarely project young unproven players to do exactly what we might assume they’re going to do. Projecting a hot, young rookie to break out despite not really have a resume to back him up is nearly impossible for these types of projections. So, when you see some of the potentially “overvalued” players, do keep that in mind.
Comparing the current ADP value for these players to their potential roto value according to each projection system, here are the most overvalued players at each position:
|1B||Goldschmidt||Goldschmidt||C. Davis||C. Davis||Adams|
|SS||H. Ramirez||Desmond||H. Ramirez||Tulowitzki||E. Cabrera|
|OF||Hamilton||McCutchen||C. Gomez||Puig||C. Gomez|
|SP||Tanaka||G. Cole||Tanaka||Strasburg||G. Cole|
|SP||G. Gonzalez||Minor||G. Gonzalez||Sale||Salazar|
Oh, poor poor Wilson Ramos. This really comes down to the projection systems all agreeing that it’s not very likely that Ramos can stay healthy for a whole season. If he’s actually able to stay healthy, he should put together a decent season. The choice is yours.
The two top first baseman in most leagues are… overvalued? Well, the thing is that Paul Goldschmidt and Chris Davis are not projected to have bad seasons but the projection systems just don’t have a long history to go off for either of these players. This is one of those situations where I’d just ignore the projection systems and carry on with my day.
This is a tricky position because, on the whole, the projection systems think there’s a lot more value than the public thinks there is at second base this year. So, while there are a lot of undervalued players here, there’s not a consensus on any overvalued players. If anything, my takeaway when looking at the projections is that there’s enough value within this position that you can wait on it until later on. So, for that reason, maybe Jason Kipnis and Robinson Cano deserve an “overvalued” label because of that.
Third base is similar to second base in that there’s not a lot of consensus about who is overvalued. All five guys listed above have some question marks surrounding them but the red flags still aren’t obvious enough for more than one projection system to agree here. It’s a position that has more undervalued guys than overvalued.
So, Hanley Ramirez is back to being an early round pick but the projection systems still haven’t forgiven him for his past yet. Most projection systems have him bordering on reaching 20/20 with a decent batting average which is all well and good but doesn’t match up to his current draft spot.
There’s actually quite a bit of agreement from the projection systems about who is overvalued in the outfield. Jacoby Ellsbury pops up on four of the five lists as they just don’t see enough value outside of his stolen bases to make him a top pick. Bryce Harper is a bit of a surprising name to see on the lists but I mentioned earlier that the projections are a bit more conservative with young players so that is likely why. Carlos Gomez hasn’t put together a long enough resume yet to validate being a top pick according to the projections. Giancarlo Stanton may not have completely scared away fans with his sub-par season last year but the projection systems are definitely considered about it and docking him accordingly.
Once again, we see a lot of consensus here. The six pitchers that appear on multiple lists fall into either being too young to have a resume that validates their high draft pick status (Sonny Gray, Gerrit Cole) or a bit of an unknown still (Masahiro Tanaka) or they have stumbled a bit in their career and the projections don’t think that they will regain their earlier success (C.J. Wilson, Jered Weaver). Or, well, they just don’t seem to like the guy as much as the public (Gio Gonzalez).
Projection systems generally weight the three most recent years for a pitcher and Rafael Soriano has posted near-elite numbers in only one of those three years. Despite that, he’s being drafted among the top closers which either means that the public knows something that the computer don’t or that maybe, just maybe, he’s being a bit overvalued.
Luke is better known as Mr. Cheatsheet despite his last name not being Cheatsheet. He makes spreadsheets, writes blog posts and his rankings were in the top 10 accuracy among FantasyPros experts in 2014, 2016 and 2017. When he's not doing fantasy baseball things, he can be found playing board games or rating beer.