As a reader of this site, you may be familiar with my analysis of how well the various baseball projection systems performed each year for fantasy baseball purposes. I came to the conclusion early in my time of doing that analysis that simply averaging together the various projections can yield great results. That revelation eventually lead me down the path of trying to find the optimal weighting of the projections to achieve even better results. That work has led to the creation of my Special Blend of projections and the 2015 version of those projections are now available.
I analyzed each statistic and the how well the projections performed in each of those statistics so that I could average the projections together but weight them differently for each statistic. This Special Blend has performed better than any of the projections that are involved within it. For 2015, I tweaked the weightings a little bit more now that I have last year’s projections added to my dataset to research. Those tweaks should make this year’s special blend of projections even more special.
The projection sources that go into the Special Blend are:
For each statistic in the projections, a combination of some of those projections is used and weighted based on how well those projections have performed in the past. Without the hard work of all of those involved in making those initial projections, this special blend would cease to exist. Many kudos to them.
While these projections have most of the big names for fantasy baseball this year, it’s possible you may see some names missing from this list. This will happen if one of the projection sources did not provide a projection for a player. That is often the case with rookies or debuting international players. All sources involved here must have a projection for a player in order for this special blending to work.
The projections for 2015 are listed below with a column for a calculated WERTH roto value for a standard 5×5 roto league. You can also access them through a Google Doc here and you are able to download them from there.
Enjoy browsing and utilizing these projections! I will be adding them to my fantasy baseball cheatsheets in the next release.