The importance of baseball projections cannot be understated when it comes to your fantasy drafts. In a recent article, I analyzed the accuracy of various projection sources for fantasy purposes. I had found that my Special Blend of projections fared the best in 2018. But, as I typically do, I still got to work on trying to tweak them further based off my research. The 2019 projections should hopefully be another step forward for this aggregate projection system.
My Special Blend projections blend data from a variety of free projection sources on the market as well as calculated xStats and stats from previous years. Based off of years of research, each individual statistic is given different weighting and combinations. When I first started doing fantasy baseball research, I noticed that just simply combining multiple projections produced more accurate results. As I grew older and wiser, I realized that certain projection systems were better than others at specific stats. This projection system grew out of that idea. Each year, I do analysis using linear regression to find which combination of projections would have done best in the previous year. That helps me continue to mold and alter the weights of my Special Blend projections and produce more accurate aggregated projections.
One of the main adjustments in the 2019 version of my projections is that I have removed the Fangraphs Fan projections from my blending. A major weakness in those particular projections is that they had a very limited player pool and it prevented me from projecting the entire fantasy baseball draft universe. By removing the Fan projections, it has added hundreds of new players to my mix. In addition, I have continued to add xStats and other sources to the blend. The full list of sources in this aggregate are:
If those sources did not exist, my Special Blend would not exist so many thanks to them for all of their hard work in generating their initial projections.
The 2019 Projections
I’ve embedded the 2019 projections below, but you can download them for yourself by accessing them through the Google Doc here. There are separate tabs for pitcher and hitter projections. The projections also include a calculated WERTH roto value for each player based on a standard 5×5 roto league format. The WERTH value is a z-score that calculates how far above or below average a player is in the main roto stats. If you want custom WERTH values for your specific league settings, check out my Excel cheatsheet where you can input your league settings.
One Final Note
These will be added into my cheatsheets very soon. I will be doing an update to the cheatsheets in the near future to address various bug fixes, as well as getting the latest data in there. I will announce on Twitter when they are available.
Projections last updated on 03/12/2019