Jed Lowrie, 2011 Deep Sleeper Candidate

The following is a profile of Jed Lowrie, one of my 2011 fantasy baseball deep sleeper candidates (affectionately called narcos).  For more information on the thought process behind the narcos, please visit the introductory post on this topic.

Average Draft Position: 471.14
Others drafted around that time: Brandon Belt, Josh Willingham, Bronson Arroyo
2011 Role: Backup SS with potential to start
2010 Production: .287 AVG, 9 HR, 31 R, 24 RBI, 1 SB in 171 AB
My 2011 Prediction: .275 AVG, 20 HR, 90 R, 70 RBI, 0 SB (if he starts)

Jed Lowrie’s career has been all over the map thus far.  In 2007, he hit nearly .300 between AA and AAA but in 2009 he couldn’t even break .200 but then in 2010 he goes and hits for a .287 average.  He’s always shown a bit of pop in his bat even if the rest of his game hasn’t been predictable.  He’s mainly a fly-ball hitter with the ability to hit a good amount of doubles with a fair share homers mixed in as well.  The doubles may not help as much with the roto leagues but points-based leagues could certainly benefit from it.

He will be 27 this year and certainly looks like he will be with the big league club again in 2011.  His role with Boston is in question as Marco Scutaro currently takes up the starting SS spot.  However, Scutaro doesn’t necessarily have the position locked up and a strong spring from Lowrie could allow him to work himself into the conversation there.  If he is able to win the starting job, he would likely put up slightly better overall numbers than Scutaro despite being drafted 200 picks after him at this point.

Lowrie has much better power than Scutaro (12 HR being Scutaro’s career high) and can hit for around the same batting average (.267 is Scutaro’s career batting average) but he may not steal the 5-15 bags that Marco would.  Beyond the steals, Lowrie is a better fantasy producer all across the board as he could definitely hit 20 HR’s with a serviceable batting average.  By most fielding measurements, Lowrie represents a better option in the field at SS than Scutaro which is only relevant to you as a fantasy owner because it means that he has an even better shot to win the job.

Considering the fact that his ADP is at nearly the 500th pick, you probably can just let Jed Lowrie go undrafted at this point while keeping a close eye on his status with the Red Sox. They’re going to have a formidable run-producing offense so he could definitely have some nice value if he can work his way into the starting lineup this season.

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