It’s hard to consistently win your fantasy baseball leagues without finding some high-value players at later spots in your draft. Year after year, I have published my ever-adjusting benchmarks for finding the best undervalued starting pitchers for your drafts. It’s a method that is inspired by advanced data and predictive trends rather than me personally scouting out the arm talents of each pitcher out there. I input magical data and get an output of a projected list of sleepers which I annually present to the world to discuss. This method has traditionally been a great way of finding those high-value sleepers after the top pitchers are off the board.

What Is Unique About This List of Sleepers?

I don’t hand-select the pitchers myself but, rather, I am presented a list of sleepers each year by coming up with the benchmarks that apply to each season and seeing who reached those benchmarks and isn’t being taken in the early rounds. These benchmarks that I established are based on seeing whether a player is a certain percentage above average in a number of stats that I’ve found predictive towards fantasy success (focusing on ERA, WHIP and K/9 rates). These benchmarks generate a dozen-or-so sleeper pitchers each year for me to publish and analyze for you.

The Benchmarks for This Year

I look at how pitchers performed last year, regardless of their ERA/WHIP, in these categories:

K-BB% – The percentage of strikeouts per PA minus the percentage of walks per PA.
Contact% – How often the hitter made contact with the pitcher’s pitches.
Swinging Strike% – How often a hitter swings and misses at a pitch that the pitcher threw.
Ball In Play% – Of all the strikes thrown by the pitcher, how many were from balls hit into play.
Strikes to Balls Ratio – Number of strikes thrown by a pitcher divided by number of balls thrown.
0-2 Counts Forced% – For each PA against a pitcher, how often it reached an 0-2 count.
Hard Hit% – Of balls hit off the pitcher, how often the ball was determined to be hit “hard”.

I then look at the league averages for those statistics, and I set a benchmark for each of them based on how strongly the stat correlates to future ERA, WHIP, and K/9 success. I end up trying to identify pitchers who reached these benchmarks in at least six of the seven categories. Based on last year’s league averages, the benchmarks used in this year’s analysis were:

Hard Hit under 32.2%
K-BB above 16.4%
Contact under 74.9%
Swinging Strike above 12.1%
Ball-in-Play under 28.3%
Strikes-to-Balls Ratio above 1.73
0-2 Counts Forced above 26.1%

Past Years’ Performance

Each year, players who reach my benchmarks outperform those who don’t. Over the last five seasons, pitchers reached the benchmarks 154 times, combining for a 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 9.8 K/9 in the following season. During that time, 718 pitchers did not reach the benchmarks and combined for a 4.16 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 8.1 K/9 the next year.

That includes all pitchers who qualified, even the all-stars we find at the top of our drafts. If we exclude pitchers being draft in the top 100 of fantasy drafts last year, there were 18 who met the benchmark, combining for a 3.84 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 9.6 K/9 last year. The 122 players being drafted out of the top 100 who didn’t meet the criteria combined for a 4.23 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 7.8 K/9.

It’s not a foolproof system as there are still going to be pitchers who perform poorly but, in general, the stats show that you will find some good pitchers using this method. Last season, some of the players who delivered great value from this list were Hunter Greene, Joe Ryan, Carlos Rodon, Ryan Pepiot and Nick Lodolo.

The 2026 Sleeper Pitchers

This year, there are technically ten players being drafted after the top 100 who met my criteria but I’m excluding two players from the recap below. Zack Wheeler and Spencer Schwellenbach both came up in my numbers as potential sleepers based on their draft positions but there are reasons for both of their low draft positions. Wheeler is likely going to miss the first couple weeks of the season and is an ace when he does pitch but he’s being drafted late because of the injury risk. Schwellenbach would be a sleeper candidate but got surgery in February that will cause him to miss at least half the season and, thus, isn’t in my sleeper conversation below.

In the actual recap below, you’ll see eight potential sleepers for this season broken into tiers based on where they’re being drafted in drafts before the season starts.

Potential Mid-Draft Sleepers

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)

Jacob Misiorowski (Age 23, 129.6 NFBC ADP) burst onto the scene as a rookie last year with strong numbers to start his season before falling apart in the second half (but then rebounding in the playoffs). All in all, he has a chance to be the Opening Day starter for Milwaukee and an ace for your fantasy team. The reason he’s being drafted so late is mostly because he’s still an unknown at this point, but he could be at the top of the draft boards next year if he delivers a season that matches his minor league success (3.35 career ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 12.3 K/9). At the stage of the draft where he’s being drafted, there’s little risk and tons of upside here.

Nick Lodolo (CIN)

Nick Lodolo (Age 28, 132.2 NFBC ADP) feels like he should be 40 years old to me because I feel like I’ve written about him as a potential breakout candidate for countless years now. Despite being drafted at around 300 ADP last year, he was on my sleeper list at that time and came through with a 3.33 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 season and now is being drafted much higher. The price is still good though. There’s no reason for him to not be able to repeat that performance and, if he does while staying healthy all year (always a risk), then you’re getting a high-end starter at a low price this season.

Emmet Sheehan (LAD)

Emmet Sheehan (Age 26, 133.2 NFBC ADP) is about two years removed from Tommy John surgery and finally getting a chance to start the season the Dodgers rotation where he is primed to deliver a stellar ERA, WHIP and K/9 rate for your team. Last year, he showed a preview of that promise by getting a dozen low-inning starts for the Dodgers where he threw 3.17 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 over nearly 60 innings as a starter. The reason he’s being drafted this low is partly because he likely won’t get as many innings as other potential high-end starters. The Dodgers could operate with a 6-man rotation and Sheehan’s innings may still be monitored as they look to keep him healthy. Despite him maybe getting 140 IP this year, he still has the potential to deliver great numbers when he does pitch.

Brandon Woodruff (MIL)

Brandon Woodruff (Age 33, 135.8 NFBC ADP) is being drafted this late in the draft because of health concerns, not talent. He has not pitched close to a full season since 2022 and is working his way back from injury to start 2026 as well. That being said, the injury risk with Woodruff is baked into his value this year based on where he’s being drafted. When he pitches, he’s going to put up ace-like numbers. At the stage he’s being drafted, you don’t lose a ton if he has an injury-plagued season, but you can gain a ton if he puts together a mostly healthy season.

Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)

Nathan Eovaldi (Age 36, 151.2 NFBC ADP) is old and that’s the reason why he’s being drafted so late. That’s pretty much it. He’s the Opening Day starter for the Rangers and had an under 2.00 ERA, a WHIP under 1.00 and about 9 K/9 last season over 130 IP. He won’t quite repeat that sort of success, but he’s shown a long-running ability to deliver decent ERA, WHIP and K/9 rates with 20+ games started over a season and the latter-half of his career seems to have shown he has gotten better with age and experience. He may not be a “breakout” candidate, but he’s certainly undervalued at his current draft spot.

Late-Draft Sleeper

Kris Bubic (KC)

Kris Bubic (Age 28, 210.3 NFBC ADP) is trying to prove that he can stay healthy for a full season and that the promise he once shown is still there. Last season was a step forward in answering both questions as he started 20 games and had a 2.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 in those games. That was his best season as a professional and, at this stage in the draft, it’s worth taking a gamble to see if he continues to build upon that season and becomes a top-end pitcher for the Royals and your team this year.

Deep League Dart Throws

Zebby Matthews (MIN)

Zebby Matthews (Age 25, 306.7 NFBC ADP) is being drafted late enough in drafts that there is very little risk to acquiring him. The upside is huge though. He’s being shunned by drafters who see his high ERA and WHIP last season without realizing how much luck played into that, as his high BABIP numbers help point out (and 3.79 FIP). He will be in the Twins rotation this season and could be a mid-tier SP for your team if luck is more on his side this season as the underlying numbers show a lot of talent here. Being drafted with a 300+ ADP means that you can stash him away for cheap and see how the first couple months go for him.

Ian Seymour (TB)

Ian Seymour (Age 27, 398.4 NFBC ADP) is coming into the season under the radar as he doesn’t have much MLB starting experience but he has blown through the minors with impressive numbers at every stop so far (2.53 career ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 11 K/9 over 73 starts). In his brief stint with the Rays last season, he continued to dominate but was mostly used out of the bullpen. This season, his potential fantasy success depends on how the Rays deploy him as they do have a crowded rotation. Keep an eye on news about him to see if he earns a spot in the rotation or not. In deeper leagues, he’s worth stashing away to see if gets the chance to break out as a starter or not.

My Overall Thoughts

Much of the reason that great pitchers get drafted later in drafts is because of baked-in injury risk, age or uncertainty about playing time. Whether you are willing to deal with those risks is usually the big question when it comes to choosing the sleepers you get behind from my lists like these. When there are pitchers on my list who don’t have those usual issues, I get a little more excited about them and Jacob Misiorowski is that guy this year. He’ll be a name that I’ll be reaching for in drafts this year.

From the rest of the group here, I still like the potential of everyone given their low asking prices on draft day. I see myself getting many shares of Nick Lodolo and Nathan Eovaldi at their current prices. I will also take a few fliers on Emmet Sheehan and Brandon Woodruff, despite the concerns about full workloads this year, because the potential is high for when they do pitch. I just want to make sure I balance it out with a few steadier names in my rotation for those leagues. I love the dart throws of Bubic and Matthews too and will be keeping an eye on Seymour’s status with the Rays this year. All in all, there’s lots of potential here (even Zack Wheeler is technically a sleeper candidate here that I would like at his draft price) and I see myself filling my rotations with most of the players here this season.

Any names jumping out to you in this list as far as who you want on all or most of your teams this season?