Angel Pagan: 2011 Fantasy Undervalued

When scanning the fantasy ADP reports early on, it’s surprising to see Angel Pagan getting disrespected so badly after a nice breakout season in 2010.  Pagan’s 11 HR, 37 SB and .290 average was huge for roto league players yet his current average draft position is 277.71 according to MockDraftCentral.  That may not be the best representation of his public value but even the highest point that he’s been drafted at on MDC is 156.  Meanwhile, Ichiro Suzuki had 6 HR, 42 SB and a .315 average (with less R and RBI) but is drafted 34.26 on average and only as low as pick 52.  Ichiro’s long track record of that type of performance obviously factors in and Pagan is not Ichiro but the comparison mainly illustrates the vast difference in their current draft positions despite similar overall roto value in 2010.

Looking at Pagan’s numbers from last year, there aren’t any stats that point to a sign of upcoming regression in 2011.  His xBABIP (expected BABIP based on a number of factors) was slightly lower than his actual BABIP so maybe his batting average drops a little bit but it should only be a slight drop if so.  His 37 SB were a bit out of the blue but he was in the top 20 in SB% by only getting caught stealing 9 times so the Mets will likely let him run again.  All in all, it appears safe to expect a somewhat similar season to 2010 for him this year.

If the Mets lineup can improve from 24th in the league in runs scored, Pagan could likely generate a bit more in the RBI and R department.  Ideally, Pagan could be a player with numbers close to .300, 10 HR, 40 SB, 90 R, 70 RBI which is just amazing for someone found so late in drafts right now.  But, even the absolute worst case of worst case scenarios would have him as someone who has a line of .275, 5 HR, 25 SB, 70 R, 60 RBI which isn’t a terrible player to rotate into your roto lineup.   So when the 277th pick rolls around in your draft, make sure it’s Pagan that you take.  Or, just take him at the 200th pick even and be happy about it.

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