It’s extremely unfortunate when a first round fantasy pick has to go on the DL only two games into the season, as Evan Longoria did, but it hurts worse in this case because 3B is such a thin fantasy position in 2011. For those who are in CBS weekly lineup leagues, you won’t get to take Longoria out until next Sunday so that adds insult to a literal injury.
Early reports say Longoria will miss about three weeks or so. This will mean roughly 20 games without him in your lineup which will hurt but shouldn’t completely cripple your team. Sean Rodriguez will likely take Longoria’s spot for the Rays and he is a fairly suitable fantasy option in all categories except for batting average however he is likely not eligible at 3B in your league yet so you likely will need to look elsewhere if you don’t have a legitimate bench option. As a waiver wire pickup for other folks, Rodriguez is worth looking into for deeper leagues that can afford the low batting average.
Based on ZiPS projections and using my WERTH roto values for a 12 team league, Longoria would be projected to give you 3.56 points in the standings if he played all 162 games. With him missing 20 games, it is projected to cost you nearly half a point in the standings over the course of the season, hurting you most in Runs and RBIs. Off the waiver wire, you won’t find someone who is projected to produce like Longoria obviously. But let’s take a look at some 3B who are owned in 35% of the leagues or less and see who could potentially fill Longoria’s void for you over a 20 game span.
In the chart below we have Longoria’s 20 game WERTH values based on ZiPS projections and then what his 162 game season total would be as far as roto value. Then, we have some potential replacement options with their value over 20 games then the season total of those 20 games plus 142 games of Longoria for comparison purposes.
|
Player
|
AVG
|
HR
|
R
|
RBI
|
SB
|
Tot
|
sTot
|
Diff
|
Own
|
|
Evan Longoria
|
0.02
|
0.09
|
0.22
|
0.16
|
-0.01
|
0.44
|
3.56
|
—
|
—
|
|
Sean Rodriguez
|
-0.19
|
0.02
|
0.16
|
-0.04
|
0.01
|
-0.05
|
3.08
|
-0.48
|
35%
|
|
Jose Lopez
|
0.08
|
-0.01
|
0.11
|
0.09
|
-0.08
|
0.20
|
3.32
|
-0.24
|
25%
|
|
Brent Morel
|
-0.02
|
-0.08
|
0.08
|
-0.05
|
0.01
|
-0.07
|
3.05
|
-0.51
|
21%
|
|
Danny Valencia
|
-0.04
|
-0.10
|
0.00
|
-0.05
|
-0.08
|
-0.27
|
2.85
|
-0.71
|
32%
|
|
Alberto Callaspo
|
0.00
|
-0.10
|
0.08
|
-0.08
|
-0.08
|
-0.18
|
2.94
|
-0.62
|
20%
|
|
Kevin Kouzmanoff
|
-0.08
|
0.01
|
0.02
|
0.04
|
-0.11
|
-0.10
|
3.02
|
-0.54
|
16%
|
With 20 games being a small sample size, anything could certainly happen but the numbers above represent the most likely expectations for each player. Out of all of the options out there, the only one who is slated to give positive value over a 20 game span is Jose Lopez, who has gotten off to a nice start over the opening series in 2011. He’s only owned in 25% of the leagues out there and could provide a decent option to plug in over the next few weeks. Twenty games of Lopez only reduces Longoria’s season value by -0.24 roto points, which keeps you in better shape than plugging in a weaker option such as Danny Valencia and losing nearly a full roto point over the season.
So, if you’re in a bind after losing Longoria for the near future, feel free to take a chance on Jose Lopez over the next few weeks unless you already have some better options available. Lopez is in a nice situation at the moment in Colorado and won’t completely fill up a Longoria-sized hole for you but at least keep you afloat for the time being.
