Once we have a player's xBABIP, we can convert it into their expected batting average (xAVG) by looking at how many balls they hit into play that year and seeing how their AVG would be affected if they had
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david dahl
Dating back to 2007, there were 29 hitters who met my criteria and were also in their team's Opening Day lineup. Of those, 21 (72%) were drafted twice as high the next year and 90% outperformed expectations that season.